I see investing as a constant opportunity to learn and improve my financial understanding of the world. For the last few weeks, my friends have heard me talk about an investment I made which went south big-time a few weeks ago, losing 75% of it\’s value almost overnight. The investment was in international facilities management and construction company, Carillion plc.
Although I only own a modest sum of publicly listed shares, I take trading as seriously as any other investment, and have a number of criteria a share has to hit before I invest in it.
- The share has to yield more than 4% in dividends
- The dividend has to be covered by more than 1.5x earnings
- The dividend has to have grown by at least 2% over the last five years
- The company cannot have net gearing of more than 300%
- The company must have had positive cashflow for 8 of the last ten years
- I must be able to understand what the company does
When I originally invested in Carillion, the company passed all these tests, but despite this the share gradually lost 15% of its value from purchase, before falling from 180p to just over 50p a share within the space of three days in July.
What have I learned?
Other than a rising debt load, the main thing that I\’ll avoid next time is a company which is being significantly \’shorted\’ by the market. When an investor \’shorts\’ a share, they borrow it from a third party and sell it to the market, later buying it back for a cheaper price and returning it to the person that lent it to them, whilst keeping the profit from the sale and re-purchase of the share.
If a company is heavily shorted, I now wonder whether it\’s an indication that \’insiders\’ know that whatever the management are saying publicly is a load of baloney. Although in the case of Carillion, I doubted this, I was proved wrong when the company had to make allowances for £845m of contractual problems out of the blue one Monday, despite the usual corporate-speak of \’strong and stable cash flows\’ and \’strong contractual relationships\’.
Regardless of the hideously precipitous collapse of the share price, I\’ve continued to hold my shares – although the dividend has been hiked, I\’m holding out for new management to right the ship, and perhaps one day to sell them at a small profit – although I suspect that one day may take many, many years to arrive…